Identification of subgroups of metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) patients treated with abiraterone plus prednisone at low- vs. high-risk of radiographic progression: An analysis of COU-AA-302
Introduction: Radiographic imaging is used to monitor disease progression for men with metastatic castrate-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). The optimal frequency of imaging, a costly and limited resource, is not known. Our objective was to identify predictors of radiographic progression to inform the frequency of imaging for men with mCRPC.
Methods: We accessed data for men with chemotherapy-naive mCRPC in the abiraterone acetate plus prednisone (AA-P) group of a randomized trial (COU-AA-302) (n=546). We used Cox proportional hazards modelling to identify predictors of time to progression. We divided patients into groups based on the most important predictors and estimated the probability of radiographic progression-free survival (RPFS) at six and 12 months.
Results: Baseline disease and change in prostate-specific antigen (PSA) at eight weeks were the strongest determinants of RPFS. The probability of RPFS for men with bone-only disease and a ≥50% fall in PSA was 93% (95% confidence interval [CI] 87–96) at six months and 80% (95% CI 72–86) at 12 months. In contrast, the probability of RPFS for men with bone and soft tissue metastasis and <50% fall in PSA was 55% (95% CI 41–67) at six months and 34% (95% CI 22–47) at 12 months. These findings should be externally validated.
Conclusions: Patients with chemotherapy-naive mCRPC treated with first-line AA-P can be divided into groups with significantly different risks of radiographic progression based on a few clinically available variables, suggesting that imaging schedules could be individualized.
You, the Author(s), assign your copyright in and to the Article to the Canadian Urological Association. This means that you may not, without the prior written permission of the CUA:
- Post the Article on any Web site
- Translate or authorize a translation of the Article
- Copy or otherwise reproduce the Article, in any format, beyond what is permitted under Canadian copyright law, or authorize others to do so
- Copy or otherwise reproduce portions of the Article, including tables and figures, beyond what is permitted under Canadian copyright law, or authorize others to do so.
The CUA encourages use for non-commercial educational purposes and will not unreasonably deny any such permission request.
You retain your moral rights in and to the Article. This means that the CUA may not assert its copyright in such a way that would negatively reflect on your reputation or your right to be associated with the Article.
The CUA also requires you to warrant the following:
- That you are the Author(s) and sole owner(s), that the Article is original and unpublished and that you have not previously assigned copyright or granted a licence to any other third party;
- That all individuals who have made a substantive contribution to the article are acknowledged;
- That the Article does not infringe any proprietary right of any third party and that you have received the permissions necessary to include the work of others in the Article; and
- That the Article does not libel or violate the privacy rights of any third party.