Next-generation prostate cancer risk calculator for primary care physicians

Robert K. Nam, Raj Satkunasivam, Joseph L. Chin, Jonathan Izawa, John Trachtenberg, Ricardo Rendon, David Bell, Rajiv Singal, Christopher Sherman, Linda Sugar, Kevin Chagin, Michael W. Kattan

Abstract


Introduction: Current prostate cancer risk calculators are limited in impact because only a probability of having prostate cancer is provided. We developed the next generation of prostate cancer risk calculator that incorporates life expectancy in order to better evaluate prostate cancer risk in context to a patient’s age and comorbidity.

Methods: We combined two cohorts to develop the new risk calculator. The first was 5638 subjects who all underwent a prostate biopsy for prostate cancer detection. The second was 979 men diagnosed with prostate cancer with long-term survival data. Two regression models were used to create multivariable nomograms and an online prostate cancer risk calculator was developed.

Results: Of the 5638 patients who underwent a prostate biopsy, 629 (11%) were diagnosed with aggressive prostate cancer (Gleason Score 7[4+3] or more). Of the 979 patients who underwent treatment for prostate cancer, the 10-year overall survival (OS) was 49.6% (95% confidence interval [CI] 46.6‒52.9). The first multivariable nomogram for cancer risk had a concordance index of 0.74 (95% CI 0.72, 0.76), and the second nomogram to predict survival had a concordance index of 0.71 (95% CI 0.69‒0.72). The nextgeneration prostate cancer risk calculator was developed online and is available at: http://riskcalc.org/ProstateCA_Screen_Tool.

Conclusions: We have developed the next-generation prostate cancer risk calculator that incorporates a patient’s life expectancy based on age and comorbidity. This approach will better evaluate prostate cancer risk. Future studies examining other populations will be needed for validation.


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DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.5489/cuaj.4696